March 13, 2026

Reason #67: It Has the Worst Return on Investment in Engineering

You picked mechanical engineering because it sounded safe. Broad. The one that keeps your options open. You heard that from an adviser, a parent, or a rankings page that listed median salaries without telling you where ME actually sits relative to the other branches. See Reason #63 already showed you part of the picture. This is the rest.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York tracks wages, unemployment, and underemployment for recent college graduates by major, using American Community Survey data refreshed each year. The dataset now spans six consecutive releases, from roughly 2018 through 2024. Mechanical engineering appears in every one. It does not appear well.

In the most recent data, ME early-career median pay is $80,000. That ranks sixth out of seven named engineering branches. Computer engineering leads at $90,000. Chemical and aerospace tie at $85,000. Only civil sits below you. At mid-career the order reshuffles slightly but the position does not improve. Chemical leads at $135,000. ME sits at $120,000, still second from the bottom (Table 1). Average those six years and the pattern holds. The ranking barely moves because the gap is structural, not cyclical. You already saw the plateau in Reason #27. The Fed data confirm it is not a feeling. It is a position on a chart that does not budge.

Now add underemployment. In the 2024 ACS release, 20.1% of recent ME graduates work jobs that typically do not require a college degree. One in five. Computer engineering underemployment is 15.8%. Civil is 15.6%. Aerospace is 14.7%. ME sits in the bottom half of that list too, outperformed by branches that pay more and place better (Table 2).

Then add the cost of the degree itself. Mechanical engineering is the discipline most likely to stretch past four years. Rigid prerequisite chains, annual-only course offerings, and a math and physics gauntlet that starts before core ME even begins all conspire to push the median closer to five or six years. See Reason #2. That extra year, or two, is not free. At an in-state public university each additional year costs another $25,000 to $40,000 in tuition and fees. It also costs a year of earnings you did not collect. At ME's own early-career median, that is roughly $80,000 per year in forgone salary. One extra year puts the opportunity cost north of $100,000. Two extra years pushes it past $200,000 before you account for the compounding you missed in a retirement account (Table 3). You paid more to enter at the bottom.

Grad school does not fix it. A master's does not reliably move you up the wage ladder in ME because employers price experience over letters, and the market already has two and a half candidates for every seat. See Reason #19 and Reason #34. The Fed's own data show ME's share with a graduate degree hovering around 39%, lower than chemical, electrical, aerospace, and miscellaneous engineering. More tuition does not tilt the plateau.

You chose the engineering major that takes the longest to complete, pays near the bottom at every career stage, underemploys one in five of its graduates, and offers a mid-career ceiling that chemical, computer, and aerospace engineers pass on their way to somewhere higher. You did this because someone told you it was broad. Broad, in this context, meant cheap. Not for you. For them.

You earned the hardest degree on the menu and got the smallest check at the table.


Data Tables


Table 1. Median Wages by Engineering Major, Early Career and Mid-Career (2024 ACS)

Major Early Career (22-27) Mid-Career (35-45) ME Deficit (Mid)
Computer Engineering $90,000 $131,000 -$11,000
Chemical Engineering $85,000 $135,000 -$15,000
Aerospace Engineering $85,000 $130,000 -$10,000
Industrial Engineering $83,000 $100,000 +$20,000
Electrical Engineering $82,000 $123,000 -$3,000
Mechanical Engineering $80,000 $120,000 ---
Civil Engineering $75,000 $115,000 +$5,000

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates, February 2026 (2024 ACS data). Early career = ages 22-27. Mid-career = ages 35-45.


Table 2. Underemployment Rate by Engineering Major, Recent Graduates (2024 ACS)

Major Underemployment Rate
Aerospace Engineering 14.7%
Civil Engineering 15.6%
Computer Engineering 15.8%
Chemical Engineering 17.9%
Mechanical Engineering 20.1%
Electrical Engineering 21.1%
Industrial Engineering 31.7%

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, The Labor Market for Recent College Graduates, February 2026 (2024 ACS data). Underemployment = working in a job that typically does not require a bachelor's degree.


Table 3. Estimated Opportunity Cost of Extra Time to Degree in ME

Component 1 Extra Year (5-yr degree) 2 Extra Years (6-yr degree)
Tuition and fees (in-state public) $25,000-$40,000 $50,000-$80,000
Forgone salary (at ME early-career median) ~$80,000 ~$160,000
Total opportunity cost (conservative) $105,000-$120,000 $210,000-$240,000

Note: Does not include forgone retirement contributions, compounding, or additional living expenses. Actual cost is higher.


References:

Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (2020-2026). The labor market for recent college graduates. https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market


Ancient Babylonian clay tablet in a museum case, labeled "Complaint about delivery of the wrong grade of copper, about 1750 BC."

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