For every mechanical-engineering opening, there are about two and a half of you. Call it Two and a Half MEs. No laugh track, no Malibu beach house, just arithmetic you cannot out-argue (see Reason #24 and Reason #1).
Here are the numbers you live under. Openings run about 18,100 per year in mechanical engineering (BLS, 2025). In a recent year, 36,224 new ME bachelor's degrees were awarded (NCES, 2022). Initial H-1B entrants in mechanical-engineering occupations added another 2,714 fresh competitors (USCIS, 2025). About 5,300 already-qualified MEs were unemployed at any moment using a 1.8% proxy for the broader architecture and engineering group, applied to 286,760 employed MEs (BLS CPS & OEWS, 2025). Mechanical Engineering Technology graduates add roughly 1,455 more who often apply to the same requisitions (ASEE, 2024). Add that up and you get roughly 45,700 people for 18,100 seats, or about 2.5 applicants per opening. The flow is steady, not a one-off spike (USCIS, 2025; NCES, 2022).
Table 1. The ME Supply-Demand Arithmetic, Annual Snapshot
| Supply Component | Annual Count | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ME bachelor's degrees awarded | 36,224 | NCES, 2020-21 |
| Already-unemployed MEs (1.8% proxy) | ~5,300 | BLS CPS/OEWS, 2025 |
| H-1B initial entrants (ME occupations) | 2,714 | USCIS FY2024, Table 8 |
| ME Technology bachelor's graduates | 1,455 | ASEE, 2023 |
| Total annual supply | ~45,700 | |
| Annual openings (demand) | 18,100 | BLS OOH, 2024-34 |
| Ratio (supply per opening) | 2.5 : 1 |
Sources: NCES Table 325.47 (2022 Digest); BLS CPS Table 25 and OEWS (2025); USCIS Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers, FY 2024, Table 8; ASEE Engineering & Engineering Technology by the Numbers, 2023 edition; BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook (2024-2034 projections).
The H-1B line in Table 1 deserves a closer look, because it does not affect every engineering discipline equally. Table 2 shows the breakdown. USCIS approved 2,714 initial H-1B petitions for mechanical engineering occupations in FY 2024. That is more than civil engineering (1,756) and not far behind industrial (2,080). Electrical engineering draws the most at 3,949, but EE also has 17,500 openings per year to absorb them. ME has 18,100. The ratio of H-1B entrants to openings is similar, but ME is already running a larger domestic surplus. The H-1B inflow makes a tight market tighter. It does not create the problem. It compounds it.
The "continuing employment" column matters just as much. Those 5,296 ME renewals represent H-1B holders already sitting in roles whose employers chose to keep them rather than open the seat. Civil engineering has 2,271 continuing. Industrial has 3,291. ME's continuing total is the second highest of any named engineering category, behind only electrical. That is 5,296 positions per year that did not become openings for anyone else.
Table 2. H-1B Petitions Approved for Initial Employment by Engineering Occupation, FY 2024
| USCIS Occupation Category | Initial Employment | Continuing Employment | Total Approved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Architecture, Eng., and Surveying, N.E.C. * | 4,624 | 5,392 | 10,016 |
| Electrical/Electronics Engineering | 3,949 | 9,296 | 13,245 |
| Mechanical Engineering | 2,714 | 5,296 | 8,010 |
| Industrial Engineering | 2,080 | 3,291 | 5,371 |
| Civil Engineering | 1,756 | 2,271 | 4,027 |
| Engineering subtotal | 15,123 | 25,546 | 40,669 |
Source: USCIS, Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers: Fiscal Year 2024 Annual Report to Congress, Table 8. "Initial employment" = new H-1B entrants. "Continuing employment" = renewals or extensions of workers already in H-1B status. * "N.E.C." = Not Elsewhere Classified. This catch-all includes aerospace, chemical, biomedical, environmental, nuclear, and all other engineering occupations not listed by name.
What does two and a half per seat do to "entry-level"? Well, you already know if you read Reason #12, but if not. It turns "preferred" into required. It turns "nice to have" into the first screen. It makes internships the gate you were told to use, then it removes the gate for your field (see Reason #5) or replaces it with seasonal technician work that does not carry over. In a crowd, hiring favors the person who already lived inside the fixtures and calendars you will inherit (see Reason #10) not the person who could learn them quickly (see Reason #14). What do you think "preferred experience" means in a market like that?
It stays crowded because the pipeline keeps refilling. ME is the default major for undecided engineers, so the inflow never slows even when the roles narrow (see Reason #4). Your pool is not just your class; it is global, it is last year's class, and it is incumbents who never left the queue (again, see Reason #24). There is no guild to thicken the shield when budgets tighten or when titles blur between engineer and technologist without changing the work (see Reason #13).
Table 3 shows what this looks like when you line up degrees against openings across disciplines. ME awards 36,224 bachelor's degrees for 18,100 openings. Two graduates per seat. Civil engineering awards 15,051 degrees for 23,600 openings. Fewer graduates than jobs. Electrical is nearly balanced at 16,914 to 17,500. Industrial engineering has four times as many openings as graduates. The field that sells itself as the broadest, most flexible option produces the worst degree-to-opening ratio of any named engineering discipline except chemical, and chemical's number is a BLS coding artifact, not a placement problem.
Table 3. Bachelor's Degrees vs. Annual Openings by Engineering Discipline
| Discipline | BS Degrees | BLS Openings/yr | Degrees per Opening |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mechanical Engineering | 36,224 | 18,100 | 2.0 |
| Computer Engineering † | 7,338 | 4,700 | 1.6 |
| Aerospace Engineering † | 5,251 | 4,500 | 1.2 |
| Electrical/Electronics Eng. | 16,914 | 17,500 | 1.0 |
| Chemical Engineering | 9,986 | 1,100 | 9.1 * |
| Civil Engineering | 15,051 | 23,600 | 0.6 |
| Industrial/Mfg/Systems † | 5,847 | 25,200 | 0.2 |
| Computer Sci. (inside Eng.) † | 26,324 | 129,200 ** | 0.2 |
Sources: Degree counts for mechanical, civil, electrical/electronics, and chemical engineering from NCES Table 325.47, Digest of Education Statistics, 2022 edition (2020-21 academic year). Degree counts marked † from ASEE Engineering & Engineering Technology by the Numbers, 2023 edition, Table 1.1.1 (2022-23 academic year), because NCES does not break out those disciplines. BLS openings from Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2024-2034 projections. Sorted by degrees per opening, highest first. Counts reflect bachelor's degrees only and do not include H-1B entrants, unemployed incumbents, or engineering technology graduates.
* Chemical engineering's high ratio reflects BLS coding: only 1,100 annual openings are classified under "chemical engineers," but many ChemE graduates enter pharma, biotech, and process roles coded under other occupations.
** Computer Science (inside Engineering) is shown in italics because its BLS match is "software developers, QA analysts, and testers" (129,200 openings/yr), a broad category absorbing graduates from CS programs both inside and outside engineering schools, bootcamps, and self-taught developers.
Table 3 only counts degrees. It leaves out H-1B entrants, unemployed incumbents, and engineering technology graduates. Tables 4-A through 4-E run the same four-component supply calculation from Table 1 on every other discipline, and Table 5 puts the results side by side. The methodology is identical: bachelor's degrees plus unemployed proxy plus H-1B initial entrants plus engineering technology graduates, divided by BLS projected annual openings.
Look at civil engineering in Table 4-B. Even after adding 1,756 H-1B entrants, 6,640 unemployed incumbents, and 213 technology graduates on top of 15,051 bachelor's degrees, the total supply is 23,660 for 23,600 openings. One to one. The market absorbs essentially everyone. Industrial engineering in Table 4-C is even better. Fewer than 16,000 people competing for 25,200 seats. A 0.6 ratio. More openings than candidates. These are not exotic fields. They are standard engineering disciplines taught at the same universities, with the same four-year commitment, the same calculus sequence, the same senior design capstone. The difference is what happens after graduation.
Table 4-A. Electrical/Electronics Engineering Supply-Demand Arithmetic
| Supply Component | Annual Count | Source |
|---|---|---|
| EE bachelor's degrees awarded | 16,914 | NCES, 2020-21 |
| Already-unemployed EEs (1.8% of ~287,900) | ~5,182 | BLS OOH/CPS proxy |
| H-1B initial entrants (EE occupations) | 3,949 | USCIS FY2024, Table 8 |
| EE Technology bachelor's graduates | 536 | ASEE, 2023 |
| Total annual supply | ~26,581 | |
| Annual openings (demand) | 17,500 | BLS OOH, 2024-34 |
| Ratio (supply per opening) | 1.5 : 1 |
Table 4-B. Civil Engineering Supply-Demand Arithmetic
| Supply Component | Annual Count | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Civil Eng. bachelor's degrees awarded | 15,051 | NCES, 2020-21 |
| Already-unemployed CEs (1.8% of ~368,900) | ~6,640 | BLS OOH/CPS proxy |
| H-1B initial entrants (civil eng.) | 1,756 | USCIS FY2024, Table 8 |
| Civil Eng. Technology bachelor's graduates | 213 | ASEE, 2023 |
| Total annual supply | ~23,660 | |
| Annual openings (demand) | 23,600 | BLS OOH, 2024-34 |
| Ratio (supply per opening) | 1.0 : 1 |
Table 4-C. Industrial Engineering Supply-Demand Arithmetic
| Supply Component | Annual Count | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Eng. bachelor's degrees † | 5,847 | ASEE, 2022-23 |
| Already-unemployed IEs (1.8% of ~351,100) | ~6,320 | BLS OOH/CPS proxy |
| H-1B initial entrants (industrial eng.) | 2,080 | USCIS FY2024, Table 8 |
| Industrial Eng. Technology bachelor's graduates | 998 | ASEE, 2023 |
| Total annual supply | ~15,245 | |
| Annual openings (demand) | 25,200 | BLS OOH, 2024-34 |
| Ratio (supply per opening) | 0.6 : 1 |
Table 4-D. Aerospace Engineering Supply-Demand Arithmetic
| Supply Component | Annual Count | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Aerospace Eng. bachelor's degrees † | 5,251 | ASEE, 2022-23 |
| Already-unemployed AEs (1.8% of ~71,600) | ~1,289 | BLS OOH/CPS proxy |
| H-1B initial entrants (aerospace eng.) | N/A * | In USCIS N.E.C. catch-all |
| Aerospace Eng. Technology bachelor's grads | 211 | ASEE, 2023 |
| Total annual supply (floor) | ~6,751+ | |
| Annual openings (demand) | 4,500 | BLS OOH, 2024-34 |
| Ratio (supply per opening, floor) | 1.5+ : 1 |
* USCIS does not break out aerospace engineering individually. Aerospace H-1B approvals are included in "Architecture, Engineering, and Surveying, N.E.C." (4,624 total initial approvals for all unlisted engineering disciplines). The true supply is higher than shown.
Table 4-E. Chemical Engineering Supply-Demand Arithmetic
| Supply Component | Annual Count | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Chemical Eng. bachelor's degrees awarded | 9,986 | NCES, 2020-21 |
| Already-unemployed ChemEs (1.8% of ~21,600) | ~389 | BLS OOH/CPS proxy |
| H-1B initial entrants (chemical eng.) | N/A * | In USCIS N.E.C. catch-all |
| Chemical Eng. Technology bachelor's grads | N/A | Not listed in ASEE |
| Total annual supply (floor) | ~10,375+ | |
| Annual openings (demand) | 1,100 | BLS OOH, 2024-34 |
| Ratio (supply per opening, floor) | 9.4+ : 1 ** |
* USCIS does not break out chemical engineering individually. ** Chemical engineering's extreme ratio reflects BLS occupation coding, not actual placement difficulty. BLS classifies only 1,100 annual openings under "chemical engineers," but ChemE graduates routinely enter pharma, biotech, and process roles coded under different occupations.
Table 5 is the punchline. Same methodology, same sources, same year. ME sits at the top at 2.5 to 1. Electrical is 1.5. Aerospace is 1.5 and that is a floor estimate because its H-1B data is hidden in the catch-all. Civil is perfectly balanced. Industrial has a surplus of openings. The discipline you were told was the safest, broadest, most flexible choice is the most oversaturated by every measure the federal government publishes.
Table 5. Full Supply-Demand Ratio by Engineering Discipline
| Discipline | Total Supply | BLS Openings/yr | Supply per Opening |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mechanical Engineering | ~45,700 | 18,100 | 2.5 |
| Electrical/Electronics Eng. | ~26,581 | 17,500 | 1.5 |
| Aerospace Engineering | ~6,751+ | 4,500 | 1.5+ |
| Civil Engineering | ~23,660 | 23,600 | 1.0 |
| Industrial/Mfg/Systems Eng. | ~15,245 | 25,200 | 0.6 |
| Chemical Engineering ** | ~10,375+ | 1,100 | 9.4+ |
Sources: See Tables 1 and 4-A through 4-E. All supply totals use the same four-component methodology (bachelor's degrees + unemployed proxy + H-1B initial entrants + engineering technology graduates). Aerospace and chemical totals are floor estimates because USCIS does not break out their H-1B data individually. ** Chemical engineering's ratio is inflated by BLS occupation coding; see Table 4-E footnote. Sorted by ratio, excluding chemical.
And none of this is new. Table 6 shows ME bachelor's degrees over fifteen years alongside the BLS projected annual openings that applied during each period. The degree count nearly doubled in a decade, from 18,498 in 2009-10 to a peak of 37,353 in 2019-20. It has since declined to 28,568 in 2023-24, a 24 percent drop from the peak. The BLS openings figure ranged from 17,900 to 21,200 across that same window. In 2009-10, the degree count was below the openings figure. By 2015-16, ME was awarding more degrees than the BLS projected openings in any cycle. By 2017-18, the ratio crossed 1.7 using the most generous openings figure the BLS ever published for this occupation. Even now, after three straight years of declining degree production, the ratio still sits at 1.6. The supply doubled, peaked, and fell. The demand never moved. Civil engineering degrees grew too, from 11,335 to 15,051 over the same window, but civil had 23,600 openings per year waiting for them. ME never had more than 21,200. The pipeline kept filling. The exits did not widen. And even when the pipeline finally narrowed, the exits stayed the same size.
Table 6. ME Bachelor's Degrees Awarded vs. BLS Projected Annual Openings, 2009-10 to 2023-24
| Academic Year | ME Bachelor's Degrees | Change from Prior | BLS Openings/yr * | BLS Cycle | Degrees per Opening |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-10 | 18,498 | 21,200 | 2016-26 | 0.9 | |
| 2010-11 | 19,171 | +673 | 21,200 | 2016-26 | 0.9 |
| 2011-12 | 20,541 | +1,370 | 21,200 | 2016-26 | 1.0 |
| 2012-13 | 21,990 | +1,449 | 21,200 | 2016-26 | 1.0 |
| 2013-14 | 24,301 | +2,311 | 21,200 | 2016-26 | 1.1 |
| 2014-15 | 26,394 | +2,093 | 21,200 | 2016-26 | 1.2 |
| 2015-16 | 29,216 | +2,822 | 21,200 | 2016-26 | 1.4 |
| 2016-17 | 32,308 | +3,092 | 21,200 | 2016-26 | 1.5 |
| 2017-18 | 35,181 | +2,873 | 21,200 | 2016-26 | 1.7 |
| 2018-19 | 36,817 | +1,636 | 19,200 | 2019-29 | 1.9 |
| 2019-20 | 37,353 | +536 | 20,200 | 2020-30 | 1.8 |
| 2020-21 | 36,224 | -1,129 | 17,900 | 2022-32 | 2.0 |
| 2021-22 † | 32,891 | -3,333 | 19,200 | 2022-32 rev. | 1.7 |
| 2022-23 † | 29,792 | -3,099 | 19,200 | 2022-32 rev. | 1.6 |
| 2023-24 † | 28,568 | -1,224 | 18,100 | 2024-34 | 1.6 |
Sources: Degree data for 2009-10 through 2020-21 from NCES Table 325.47, Digest of Education Statistics (2022 edition). Rows marked † use ASEE Engineering & Engineering Technology by the Numbers (2022, 2023, and 2024 editions, Table 1), which covers a smaller institutional sample than NCES; counts are not directly comparable to NCES rows but reflect the same directional trend. BLS projected annual openings from Table 1.10, Occupational Separations and Openings, Employment Projections program, SOC 17-2141.
* BLS projects annual openings as decade-long averages, not year-by-year counts. The openings figure shown for each row is from the projection cycle in effect at the time, verified from archived BLS data via the Wayback Machine. Complete cycle history: 2016-26 cycle: 21,200/yr; 2019-29 cycle: 19,200/yr; 2020-30 cycle: 20,200/yr; 2022-32 cycle (original Sept 2022): 17,900/yr; 2022-32 cycle (revised Sept 2023): 19,200/yr; 2024-34 cycle (current): 18,100/yr. The 2016-26 cycle is the earliest for which BLS published annual openings in this format (Table 1.10 was introduced with the 2016-26 separations methodology). "Degrees per opening" counts only bachelor's degrees and does not include H-1B entrants, unemployed incumbents, or engineering technology graduates.
Geography gets a vote. Physical tests, line stops, supplier trials, and pilot builds happen in places, not in browsers. When the opening finally picks a name, it often picks the person within driving distance of the plant (see Reason #20). The arithmetic that crowded you into the funnel is the same arithmetic that either keep you near the fixtures after you get through (see Reason #25) or in greener pastures (see Reason #22) if you don't.
References
American Society for Engineering Education. (2023). Engineering & Engineering Technology by the Numbers, 2022. https://ira.asee.org/by-the-numbers/
American Society for Engineering Education. (2024). Engineering & Engineering Technology by the Numbers, 2023. https://ira.asee.org/by-the-numbers/
American Society for Engineering Education. (2025). Engineering & Engineering Technology by the Numbers, 2024. https://ira.asee.org/by-the-numbers/
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Aerospace engineers, Occupational Outlook Handbook. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/aerospace-engineers.htm
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Chemical engineers, Occupational Outlook Handbook. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/chemical-engineers.htm
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Civil engineers, Occupational Outlook Handbook. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/civil-engineers.htm
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Computer hardware engineers, Occupational Outlook Handbook. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/computer-hardware-engineers.htm
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Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Electrical and electronics engineers, Occupational Outlook Handbook. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/electrical-and-electronics-engineers.htm
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Industrial engineers, Occupational Outlook Handbook. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/industrial-engineers.htm
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Mechanical engineers, Occupational Outlook Handbook. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/architecture-and-engineering/mechanical-engineers.htm
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Software developers, quality assurance analysts, and testers, Occupational Outlook Handbook. https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Table 1.10: Occupational separations and openings, projected 2024-34. Employment Projections. https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/occupational-separations-and-openings.htm
Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Unemployed persons by occupation and sex (Annual averages). https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat25.htm
National Center for Education Statistics. (2022). Table 325.47: Degrees in chemical, civil, electrical, and mechanical engineering, 1959-60 through 2020-21. https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d22/tables/dt22_325.47.asp
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. (2025). Characteristics of H-1B specialty occupation workers: Fiscal Year 2024 Annual Report to Congress. https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/ola_signed_h1b_characteristics_congressional_report_FY24.pdf
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